Thursday, February 4, 2010

2/3/2010 Consolidation After Two Higher Closes

The most salient feature of today's market is that SPY consolidated after two days of higher closes. I did a search on the historical data of SPY since 2000 to see the historical tendency of the day after. By using the rules of 2 higher highs, followed by a small negative drop, and above SMA200, I found 18 instances. 60% closed higher from the open of the next day and with an average of 0.11%. There is no obvious edge on either side, but I will align myself with the long side and will be looking for entering long position at favorable location.

With the market trading 6 point below yesterday's cash close forming a potential gap at 6:32 AM, I looked into the historical data and found that when market gaps down, the historically tendency does even better, an average of 0.23% vs 0.3% when market opens above yesterday.

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